The story. A Samsung Ads executive argues in AdExchanger that subscriber counts and monthly active users overstate what CTV buyers can reach. Samsung found two of every three new NFL streamers left the service after the season. (AdExchanger, 30 October 2026)
The numbers in this piece
01What happened
- Ad tiers are now the norm. Antenna data cited in the column puts 48% of US premium SVOD accounts on ad-supported plans in Q1 2026.
- New subscribers pick ads. The same data shows 59% of new subscriptions in the quarter were ad tiers.
- The base doubled. US ad-supported premium SVOD subscriptions reached 110 million, up from 53 million two years earlier.
- Money followed. CTV upfront spend passed linear for the first time this year. Global CTV ad revenue is projected to go from $44 billion in 2025 to $81 billion by 2030.
- Ghost audiences get a name. Justin Fromm of Samsung Ads defines them as subscribers who are not watching during a three-to-four-month campaign window.
- The NFL example. Samsung Ads found two of every three new viewers who joined for NFL games had ghosted after the season, nearly twice the churn rate of existing users.
- A four-step vocabulary. Audience size is access, availability is active viewing during a flight, and addressability is the share a buyer can bid on and reach.
02What it means inside a GAM network
Fromm sells for Samsung Ads, which supplies CTV viewing data, so this is a vendor’s argument and the NFL finding is Samsung’s own. The direction is plausible, but the numbers are not independently audited.
The practical point is that CTV supply is sold impression by impression, and the buyer’s question is moving from “how big” to “how much shows up”. A publisher quoting a monthly active figure to a buyer who plans on availability is quoting the wrong number.
That matters in Google Ad Manager. Line items and deals are priced against delivered impressions, so an app with a large registered base and a thin weekly audience will under-deliver against a guaranteed flight. Seasonal content such as sport or a single series makes the gap worse. The reading of what this means for your deals is APH desk analysis.
The column's claim is simple: a big audience that is not watching is not inventory.
03What publishers should do about it
04The bottom line
The column’s claim is simple: a big audience that is not watching is not inventory. Publishers who can show who is actually present during a flight will answer the question buyers are starting to ask.