The story. AdImpact projects a record $11.6 billion in US midterm advertising once every vote is counted, ahead of the $11.2 billion of the 2024 presidential cycle. Connected TV takes $2.6 billion of that, and Digiday reports that October alone carries 46% of political CTV spend, with half of it going to ad-supported streaming. (Digiday, Media Buying Briefing: With so much at stake, midterm election spending is insane, 5 October 2026)
The numbers in this piece
01What happened
- A new record. The $11.6 billion projection compares with $8.9 billion in the 2022 midterms and $11.2 billion in the 2024 presidential election. It is an AdImpact forecast from June, not a final count.
- Television still dominates. Broadcast is projected at $5.6 billion, CTV at $2.6 billion and cable at $1.4 billion. Digital is $1.6 billion, radio $273 million and satellite $88 million.
- October is the peak. The month holds 46% of all political CTV spend, and half of that is directed to AVOD services.
- Buyers expect friction. Todd Novick of AI Digital pointed to “rising rates, complications due to displacement, makegoods which nobody’s a fan of.”
- Agencies expect a record. Jesse Contario of MiQ said “This is going to be a record setting midterm.”
- Audio is rising too. DAX US president Brian Conlan said political podcast ad spend is up 42% year over year.
02What it means inside a GAM network
Political money is concentrated in time. A CTV publisher selling through guaranteed deals, private marketplaces and open auction sees one pool of inventory pulled in many directions. Campaigns, parties, super PACs and ballot measures all compete with ordinary Q4 brand demand.
The Digiday figures do not say how much of the $2.6 billion is bought programmatically, so we cannot size a share for any one seller. What they do show is that the squeeze lands in a few weeks. Half of the October CTV money goes to AVOD services.
Displacement is the buyer-side complaint, and it is the seller-side lever. When campaigns pay up to secure delivery, commercial advertisers can get bumped and makegoods pile up. How you rank political against commercial lines in Google Ad Manager decides who gets bumped. That is our reading of the mechanics, not something Digiday reports.
The headline is $11.6 billion, but for a CTV seller the number that matters is 46%: nearly half of the political CTV money lands in one month.
03What publishers should do about it
Compliance rules for political ads, such as disclaimers and sponsor records, are a matter for your counsel and your platform’s political-ad policy. We have not covered them here.
04The bottom line
The headline is $11.6 billion, but for a CTV seller the number that matters is 46%: nearly half of the political CTV money lands in one month. Sellers who set priorities and floors before it arrives will price the squeeze. The rest will absorb it as makegoods.